Victoria is gearing up for another challenging grass pollen season, with predictions indicating that 2024 will be similar to last year’s high pollen levels, posing significant risks for people with hay fever and asthma.
AirHealth, the organisation responsible for the Melbourne Pollen monitoring program, in partnership with the University of Melbourne, is advising Victorians to prepare for a season characterised by fluctuating conditions that could impact both the timing and severity of pollen levels.
The dry winter and below-average soil moisture, particularly in western Victoria, may delay the start of the season, but if predicted rainfall arrives between October and December, a rapid increase in grass growth could lead to frequent high and extreme pollen days later in the season. Grass pollen is a major trigger for respiratory allergies and under the right conditions, can also cause dangerous incidents of thunderstorm asthma.
Dr Edwin Lampugnani, Chief Operating and Scientific Officer of AirHealth, commented: "At this stage we are expecting a bigger than average grass pollen season, one which is similar to last year.
"Forecasted rainfall could trigger a surge in grass growth that could increase the amount of grass pollen in the air. Our team is closely monitoring environmental conditions to provide the most accurate and up-to-date information. The Melbourne Pollen App is an essential tool that empowers all Victorians to manage their exposure to pollen and make informed decisions about their health,” he said.
Professor Bruce Thompson AM, the Health Sciences Head of School at the University of Melbourne, emphasised the direct link between environmental factors and respiratory health.
"Respiratory conditions like asthma are directly impacted by changes in environmental factors such as grass pollen levels. With the potential for increased pollen due to late-season rains, we could see more frequent and severe asthma episodes.
“Anything that we can do to prevent an asthma event such as predicting and measuring increased pollen, a known trigger for asthma, could significantly decrease the chance of an asthma event and therefore prevent unnecessary hospitalisations and even deaths,” he said.
National Asthma Council Australia Director and respiratory physician Professor Peter Wark said the best defence that Melburnians with allergies and asthma can have as they head into thunderstorm asthma season is good day to day control of their asthma.
“Most people with asthma over the age of six years should be using a preventer to keep their asthma under control. A blue reliever inhaler (puffer) does not stop the inflammation that causes asthma and will not prevent an asthma attack.
“Now is the time to check in with your GP and make sure you are on the best treatment to control your asthma and know what to do during a spring thunderstorm or asthma emergency.
“Even people with hay fever, who have never had asthma, should see their GP if they experience worsening asthma symptoms like breathlessness, wheezing and tightness in the chest,” he said.
Current conditions and predictions
Melbourne has recorded 438mm of rainfall by October 1st, slightly below average for this time of year. These conditions have resulted in significantly reduced soil moisture levels, particularly around Melbourne.
The Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), a satellite-derived measure assessing vegetation greenness and health, serves as a crucial indicator of plant growth and biomass. Current EVI data from September indicates that the current levels of vegetation greenness across southeastern Victoria are below those observed at the same time last year. This suggests that grass growth so far is not as robust as in 2023. If above-median rainfall occurs, grass growth could surge, leading to a higher pollen load.
The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting much of Victoria will receive above-median rainfall over the next three months. This may further improve root zone soil moisture further supporting grass growth and pollen production in this region.
What to expect this season
If the anticipated spring rainfall materializes, we could see a rapid increase in grass growth, leading to frequent high and extreme pollen days later in the season, similar to 2023. In 2023, Melbourne experienced 30 high or extreme grass pollen days. High and extreme grass pollen days pose significant health challenges for those with hay fever and asthma.
Several factors could influence the actual outcome of the pollen season:
Preparing for the pollen season
For those who suffer from hay fever or asthma, it's important to prepare for the upcoming season:
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